Is China on the brink of war? This Foreign Policy article grapples with this crucial question, exploring the possibility of China initiating a conflict, primarily with Taiwan, but also with other regional players. This article is making news since it hit inboxes of the FP subscribers early Wednesday morning.
Rising Tensions and Military Buildup
The analysis starts with stark warnings: China’s rapid military expansion, increasingly belligerent behavior, and territorial disputes (particularly with its “dotted-line” claims in the South China Sea) are alarming signs. These factors, coupled with Xi Jinping’s leadership style as a personalist dictator, raise concerns about China’s future actions.
Historical Echoes
While China emphasizes its peaceful path, the article reminds us that historical precedents are unreliable predictors. Similarly, Germany hadn’t fought a major war for 40 years before initiating World War I.
Reasons for Potential Conflict
The piece delves into potential triggers for war, including territorial disputes, miscalculations due to shifting military balances, and the tendency of declining powers to become belligerent. Additionally, personalist dictatorships are statistically more likely to initiate wars.
China’s Turbulent Past
Understanding China’s historical conflicts, from the Chinese Civil War to its numerous foreign wars, sheds light on its complex national identity and potential future aggression.
From Peace to Power
The article highlights how the past few decades, marked by a quasi-alliance with the US and access to global markets, fostered relative peace and economic prosperity for China. However, this period of calm may be coming to an end.
A More Assertive China
The analysis shifts to China’s current state, marked by growing military might, aggressive territorial claims, and a declining domestic situation (productivity, debt, aging population). Additionally, China faces a more hostile international environment with restricted access to key technologies.
Learning from Ukraine?
The article considers the possibility that China is analyzing the ongoing war in Ukraine to refine its own strategies. However, it warns against assuming China’s intentions and emphasizes the need for caution.
Conclusion
The possibility of a Chinese attack on Taiwan (or other targets) in the near future cannot be dismissed. While predicting the exact timing or even certainty of such an event is impossible, the analysis suggests that China exhibits many of the characteristics of a nation prone to war.
Action Needed
The article concludes by urging the US and its allies to take proactive measures. This includes deterring China through credible military capabilities while addressing their economic and geopolitical concerns. However, the authors express concern that current efforts lack the necessary speed, resources, and urgency to effectively counter the Chinese threat. The piece also advises against abandoning the One China policy and advocates for maintaining the status quo while upholding Taiwan’s defense capabilities.
Remember, this is just a summary, and the original article provides a more nuanced and detailed analysis. For a deeper understanding, we encourage you to read the full piece.
